The fertility revolution in Iran

At the turn of the 20th century, according to estimations, the population of Iran was around 10 million. In 1933, it had increased to 13 million, in 1976, to 34 million and in 1986 to 49 million. By 1996, the Iranian population had reached 60 million, a more than six-fold increase within a century. The last three decades of the country’s history have been marked by major political changes, the main being the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988. In recent years, the pace of the demographic transition which has occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran has puzzled international observers. The total fertility rate (TFR) declined from over 6 children per woman in the mid-1980s to 2.1 in 2000. This decline has been observed in all the provinces and in both rural and urban areas of the country. How and why has fertility dropped so much in such a short time? What are the links between political and demographic trends in Iran? This article briefly reviews population policy changes over the last three decades, examines fertility trends over the same period, and offers some possible explanations behind the fertility transition in Iran.